Initial thoughts on China and the Israeli–American attack on Iran

With perfect timing, once the markets closed, Trump and Netanyahu started a war again Iran, once again. Both want to avoid public scrutiniy of their own sins, from Epstein to corruption. War is great for autocrats, it is a rational choice. I do not think this need overtheoreizing…that Trump is dealing with Iran so that the U.S. can finally focus on China once and for all. This interpretation is empirically weak (see the rumors about negotiations about Chinese missiles to Iran entirely based on anynimous Iranian sources…) and, worse, ennobles makes it look rational (in the IR sense of the word) an administration that is everything but that. Anyways, I am sure books will be written about this.

Looking at the bright side, we have new Rubio memeds to cheer us up.

In any case, since I work on Chinese foreign policy, I just want to write my initial thoughts on this story from a China angle.

In essence, China’s MENA policy might require some adjustments but, I think, people in Beijing are quite pleased.

To begin with, this attack continues, at lest in the short-run, the depletion of US stocks of key interceptors. It adds pressure one the US Navy. It continues to make the military less likely to speak truth to power over decisions of war an peace. In other words, great news for China as the American superpower becomes less powerful less capable. Moreover, as many keep pointing out, the famous “pivot to Asia” continues to remain faraway.

Beyond East Asia/Taiwan, we see the Western countries remain determined to squander whatever credibility they have left. Europeans, angry because Global South countries continue to deal with Russia, continue to refuse even to write the name of the actual attackers or the fact that the attacks have no legal bases, so much for the rule-based international order. Davos Canadian hero Carney has forgotten about all the good reasons for middle powers to resist great power bullies.

As such, while the actual meaning of China’s Global Security Initiative remains rather unknown, it actually sounds better by the day…as it does not come with bombs (for the moment). There are already studies that show it pretty well: countries around the world often do not support China because it’s China, but because they simply do not like Western policies.

Now, it has been reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been killed. There is no doubt that this is a pivotal moment. Yet, as Robert Pape rightly keeps reminding us, the most likely outcome of this is not regime change. And if regime change happens, it is not going to be a pro-Israel/US/West one. It will more likely be just a new face of autocracy. China, or some in China, will be a bit annoyed by losing the “evil they know” but, I think, they can surely work with this. Whatever new Iranian leadership will emerge from this war, they will still need good relations with China.

Then, there is the Saudi-Iranian relationship, that is the closest thing to a regional architecture in which China has some sort of stake and made some kind of contribution to create. The Saudi, much like the other GCC countries, condemned Iranian missile strikes on their territory and declated to be read to join the U.S. and Israel against Iran. This brings Chinese diplomacy to square one as Beijing hoped to avoid Iranian isolation while continuing to strengthen the critical economic, energy, and tech ties with KSA. Yet, in practice, the end of the current Iranian leadership might well also re-open the door for stable relations with Iran, or so scholars would suggest. Moreover, whatever happens now is not going to make Saudi and GCC countries less interested and dependent on trade relations with China, or less concerned about Israel. In other words, while there might be some loss at the regional level for Beijing, it will likely be limited.

I remain skeptical about any real pain for China with regard to the flow of oil. China’s been building its strategic reserves very quickly last year. Plus, let’s not forget the electrification of its economy, just read this Rhodium Group report.

Anyways. Let’s see, I might be wrong about all or part of this.

Thank you for reading despite the typos.